PA Market Report: Overview (July 12 – July 16) & Upcoming Events July’21

Jul 12

ECB’s De Guindos: Not Discussed Any Changes In The Parameters Of ECB Refinancing Operations (Euro Zone)


Jul 13

Consumer Price Index – June 2021 (USA)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was the largest 1-month change since June 2008 when the index rose 1.0 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment;

Jul 14

Consumer sentiment holds the line despite big fall in New South Wales (Australia)

The survey was conducted over the week of July 5–9, during the lock-down in Sydney and restrictions in regional NSW but before the tightening of restrictions announced on July 9. Confidence has held up overall despite a sharp fall in NSW as other states – notably Victoria and Western Australia – recorded strong bounce-backs from COVID-related disruptions in June.

Monetary Stimulus Reduced (New Zealand)

The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the current stimulator level of monetary settings in order to meet its consumer price and employment objectives over the medium term. The Reserve Bank will halt additional asset purchases under the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program by
23 July 2021.

ASB now expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 25bp in August (New Zealand)

ASB now expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 25bp in August

Consumer price inflation, UK: June 2021 (UK)

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 2.4% in the 12 months to June 2021, up from 2.1% in the 12 months to May. The largest upward contribution to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate came from transport (0.80 percentage points). On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.4% in June 2021, compared with a rise of 0.1% in June 2020.

Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress (USA)

Chairwoman Waters, Ranking Member McHenry, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report. At the Federal Reserve, we are strongly committed to achieving the monetary policy goals that Congress has given us: maximum employment and price stability.

Producer Price Indexes – June 2021 (USA)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.8 percent in May and 0.6 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 7.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate and forward guidance, adjusts quantitative easing program (Canada)

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate. This is reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program, which is being adjusted to a target pace of $2 billion per week.

Monetary Policy Report – July 2021 (Canada)

The Bank’s mandate is to conduct monetary policy to promote the economic and financial well-being of Canadians. • Canada’s experience with inflation targeting since 1991 has shown that the best way to foster confidence in the value of money and to contribute to sustained economic growth, employment gains and improved living standards is by keeping inflation low, stable and predictable.

Macklem: Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement (Canada)

Good morning. Thank you for joining me to discuss today’s policy announcement and the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). My message today is twofold—of increased confidence and of continued attention. A year ago, at the time of my first MPR as Governor, the economy was in a very deep hole. We were just coming out of the first wave of the virus, more than two million Canadians were unemployed, and inflation was well below our 1 to 3 percent target range.

Ramsden: Navigating the economy through the Covid crisis (UK)

It’s very good to be back speaking at this 51st Strand Group event and in my role as a Visiting Professor at King’s. This is the third Strand Group event I’ve spoken at but my first time speaking to you virtually.

Jul 15

Labor Force, Australia, June 2021 (Australia)

Key statistics Seasonally adjusted estimates for June 2021: • Unemployment rate decreased to 4.9%. • Participation rate remained at 66.2%. • Employment increased to 13,154,200. • Employment to population ratio increased to 63.0%. • Underemployment rate increased to 7.9%. • Monthly hours worked decreased by 33 million hours. tables Unemployment In seasonally adjusted terms, in June 2021

The unemployment rate falls to 4.9% (Australia)

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent in June 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Unemployment Bjorn Jarvis, head of labor statistics at the ABS, said June saw the eighth consecutive monthly fall in the unemployment rate.

Saunders: The inflation outlook (UK)

In this speech, I want to discuss recent developments in the economy, and the outlook and offer some thoughts on the appropriate setting of monetary policy. I would like to make several main points. Activity seems to have recovered a bit faster than the central forecast in the May MPR, and risks lie on the side that the output gap will close earlier than previously expected.

Jul 16

Consumers price index: June 2021 quarter (New Zealand)

Key facts Inflation rate for the June 2021 quarter: • quarterly inflation rate was 1.3 percent • annual inflation rate was 3.3 percent. Quarterly change In the June 2021 quarter compared with the March 2021 quarter, the CPI rose 1.3 percent (1.3 with seasonal adjustment). • Housing and household utilities rose 1.9 percent, influenced by higher prices for homeownership (up 4.6 percent) and actual rentals for housing (up 0.9 percent).

Gain in U.S. Retail Sales Underscores Solid, Steady Consumer (Jul 16, 2021)

U.S. retail sales rose unexpectedly in June, wrapping up a solid quarter for household demand. The value of overall retail purchases advanced 0.6% last month following a downwardly revised 1.7% drop in May, Commerce Department figures showed Friday.

Upcoming Events

Jul 19

MPC Member Haskel Speaks

Jul 20

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Jul 21

  • Retail Sales m/m
  • Crude Oil Inventories

Jul 22

  • Monetary Policy Statement
  • Main Refinancing Rate
  • ECB Press Conference
  • Unemployment Claims

Jul 23

  • Retail Sales m/m
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • French Flash Services PMI
  • German Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • German Flash Services PMI
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Flash Services PMI
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Flash Services PMI
  • Core Retail Sales m/m
  • Retail Sales m/m
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Flash Services PMI
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