Jul 19
Haskel: Will the pandemic “scar” the economy? (UK)
Good morning everyone and thank you for having me here today. I’m delighted to be in Liverpool, albeit remotely, and very much hope to be able to visit in person when the pandemic allows. I’d like today to talk about my view on the more medium-term prospects for the economy, what economists, perhaps uninvitingly, call the supply side. The exam question is: has the pandemic damaged the feasible capacity of the economy? In his acclaimed book, the author Sebastian Mallaby called Alan Greenspan “The Man Who Knew”.
Jul 20
NSW and Victorian lockdowns likely to see the economy contract in the September quarter (Australia)
Last week, we released a preliminary assessment of the likely impact of the NSW lockdown on GDP. We pointed out that: • We should assess the outlook from the perspective of earlier lockdowns, where economies bounced back quickly once restrictions were eased. • Governments remain strongly committed to supporting households and businesses during restrictions. • Balanced against those positives will be the potential for an extended lockdown;
Review of June quarter CPI and OCR forecast update (New Zealand)
We have updated our forecast for the Official Cash Rate. As we detailed earlier this week, we now expect that the RBNZ will increase the cash rate by 0.25 ppts at the time of the August Monetary Policy Statement. This is expected to be followed by 0.25 ppt increases at both the October review and at the November Monetary Policy Statement. Following the November policy statement, we expect that the RBNZ will pause to assess how the economy is tracking, with further gradual rate increases beginning again in mid-2022.
Jul 21
Crude Inventory 2.1M Barrels vs -3.91M Expected (USA)
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million barrels per day during the week ending July 16, 2021, which was 87,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day. The U.S.
Jul 22
Broadbent: Mismatch (UK)
Good morning. We’re going through a period of very rapid economic growth. On a reasonable estimate GDP in the second quarter of this year was probably around 5% higher than in the first and more than 22% higher than a year earlier. That’s easily the fastest year-on-year rate of growth since quarterly estimates began in the mid-1950s, and probably a long time before that as well.
Monetary policy decisions (EU)
In its recent strategy review, the Governing Council agreed to a symmetric inflation target of two percent over the medium term. The key ECB interest rates have been close to their lower bound for some time, and the medium-term outlook for inflation is still well below the Governing Council’s target. In these conditions, the Governing Council today revised its forward guidance on interest rates. It did so to underline its commitment to maintaining a persistently accommodate monetary policy stance to meet its inflation target.
Unemployment insurance weekly claims (USA)
In the week ending July 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 419,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 8,000 from 360,000 to 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
ECB’s President Laggards: we are still in a moment of crisis (Euro Zone)
MORE ECB’S LAGARDE: REVISION OF FORWARDING GUIDANCE ‘LIMITED TO INTEREST RATES’
Jul 23
The robust upturn in US private sector activity amid quicker manufacturing output expansion (USA)
U.S. private sector companies reported a further substantial expansion in business activity during July. That said, the rate of growth eased for the second month running to the softest since March, as firms continued to report widespread capacity constraints. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index posted 59.7 in July, down from 63.7 in June.
Upcoming Events
July 26
- German ifo Business Climate
- MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
Jul 27
- BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
- RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks
- CB Consumer Confidence
Jul 28
- CPI q/q
- Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
- CPI m/m
- Common CPI y/y
- Median CPI y/y
- Trimmed CPI y/y
- Crude Oil Inventories
Jul 29
- FOMC Statement
- Federal Funds Rate
- FOMC Press Conference
- Advance GDP q/q
- Advance GDP Price Index q/q
- Unemployment Claims
- Pending Home Sales m/m
Jul 30
- German Prelim GDP q/q
- GDP m/m
- Core PCE Price Index m/m
- Chicago PMI
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Jul 31
Manufacturing PMI
