PA Market Report: Overview (June 14 – June 18) & Upcoming Events June’21

Jun 14

Lagarde: Interview with Politico EU (Euro Zone)

The eurozone still needs fiscal and monetary support. That is why we would very much love to know for how long you expect the region to still need the proverbial crutches that you cited? In terms of real gross domestic product (GDP) we are likely to be back to the pre-COVID-19 level that we had in December 2019 – if the Delta variant doesn’t ruin our plans – in the first quarter of 2022.

Jun 15

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board (Australia)

Members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by noting that the global outlook had improved over recent months and risks to the global economy had become more balanced. Global trade volumes had increased strongly and measures of new export orders were buoyant. COVID-19 case numbers had fallen in many advanced economies as vaccination rates had risen, and containment measures were being eased.

Producer Price Indexes – May 2021 (USA)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in April and 1.0 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 6.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010. Nearly 60 percent of the May increase in the index for final demand can be traced to a 1.5- percent rise in prices for final demand goods.

Retail sales fell 1.3 percent in May, a sign of a bumpy economic recovery (USA)

Retail sales fell slightly last month, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday, as consumers spent less on goods and more on activities like travel, an industry that had been hobbled by the pandemic. The 1.3 percent decline in May follows months of ups and downs in consumer spending, driven by the persistence of the coronavirus that had kept many people away from airports and restaurants.

GDT index dips again to mark 5 decreases on the trot (New Zealand)

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index has recorded a slight drop to mark five consecutive decreases over the last two months in its latest auction. The most recent tender – event 286 – concluded today (Tuesday, June 15) with the GDT Price Index down 1.3%. Lasting two hours and 21 minutes, today’s event saw 160 participating bidders take part across 18 bidding rounds, with 101 winning bidders emerging. A total of 21,522MT of product was sold on the day.

Jun 16

Consumer Price Index, May 2021 (Canada)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% on a year-over-year basis in May, up from a 3.4% gain in April. This was the largest yearly increase since May 2011. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5% year over year. Although base-year effects continue to impact the 12-month price movement for some specific consumer goods, such as gasoline, furniture and beef products, the increase in year-over-year price growth in May was led by rising prices for shelter and passenger vehicles.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (USA)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.

FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (USA)

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 15–16, 2021, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2021 to 2023 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes.

Powell says recovery is incomplete, risks remain (USA)


Jun 17

Gross domestic product: March 2021 quarter (USA)

Key facts: In the March 2021 quarter compared with the December 2020 quarter: • GDP was up 1.6 percent • service industries rose 1.1 percent • goods producing industries rose 2.4 percent • primary industries rose 0.3 percent • GDP per capita rose 1.5 percent • real gross national disposable income rose 0.9 percent • average annual GDP to March 2021 fell 2.3 percent • size of the economy is $325 billion in current prices in the year ended March 2021.

Lowe: From Recovery to Expansion (Australia)

Thank you for the invitation to join the Australian Farm Institute’s conference. It is a great pleasure for me to visit Toowoomba and to learn more about the issues facing the farm sector and regional Australia. As we all know, the past year has been an extremely challenging one in the life of our nation.

Labour Force, Australia, May 2021 (Australia)

Key statistics: Seasonally adjusted estimates for May 2021: • Unemployment rate decreased to 5.1%. • Participation rate increased to 66.2%. • Employment increased to 13,125,100. • Employment to population ratio increased to 62.8%. • Underemployment rate decreased to 7.4%. • Monthly hours worked increased by 25 million hours.

Urgently investigating’: CBA, Westpac, ANZ face service outages (Australia)

A range of banks, including big four lenders Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and ANZ, are scrambling to find the source of an outage that is affecting internet banking and access to online apps across the country. Commonwealth Bank used Twitter to apologise for the outage and thank customers for their patience. “We’re aware some of you are experiencing difficulties accessing our services and we’re urgently investigated,” CBA posted around 3pm.

Germany plans net new debt of around 100 bln euros for 2022 – source (Germany)


Jun 18

Fed’s Bullard (2022 voter) is one of the 7; sees lift-off in “late 2022” (USA)


Upcoming news:

June 21:

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Jun 23

  • Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • French Flash Services PMI
  • German Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • German Flash Services PMI
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Flash Services PMI
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Flash Services PMI
  • Core Retail Sales m/m
  • Retail Sales m/m
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Flash Services PMI
  • Crude Oil Inventories

Jun 24

  • German ifo Business Climate
  • Asset Purchase Facility
  • MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes
  • Monetary Policy Summary
  • MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
  • Official Bank Rate
  • Final GDP q/q
  • Unemployment Claims

June 25

  • Core PCE Price Index m/m
  • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
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