U.S. 30-Year Yield Drops Below 2% For First Time Since February (USA)
Treasury 30-year yields dropped below 2% for the first time since February as traders continued to unwind reflation trades after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot. Thirty-year yields fell two basis points to 1.99%, while benchmark rates declined as much as three basis points to 1.40%, lowest since early March. Short-end yields edged up.
Bullard: Have to be ready for idea of upside inflation risks (USA)
Fed’s Bullard: In ‘Much Stronger Position’ With Respect To Reopening, Inflation Has Come Along With It
Williams: Fed is not following a mechanical formula in making monetary policy (USA)
FED WILLIAMS SEES 7% U.S. GDP GROWTH THIS YEAR, JOBLESS AROUND 4.5% – BBG
*WILLIAMS SAYS WILL ASSESS INCOMING DATA TO JUDGE PROGRESS
*WILLIAMS: NO NUMERICAL THRESHOLD TO JUDGE SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS
French private sector ends second quarter with strong back-to-back expansions (Euro Zone)
The June Flash France PMI® survey signalled another month of strong growth across the private sector, rounding off a positive quarter for the economy as the lifting of lockdown restrictions enabled the recovery to take a firmer foothold. The service sector was the driving force behind June’s expansion as the rate of growth in manufacturing cooled from May’s 40-month peak.
Recovery in German economy gains momentum in June (Euro Zone)
The recovery in Germany’s private sector economy gained momentum in June, latest ‘flash’ PMI® data from IHS Markit showed, with the further easing of COVID-19 restrictions and release of pent-up demand leading to a sharp and accelerated rise in business activity. However, the recovery in output levels was accompanied by a further increase in price pressures, with rates of inflation in both input costs and output prices accelerating to newrecord highs.
Bank Rate maintained at 0.1% (UK)
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 22 June 2021, the Committee judged that the existing stance of monetary policy remained appropriate.
Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), 1st Quarter 2021 (USA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 4.3 percent. The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 6.4 percent.
Personal Income and Outlays, May 2021 (USA)
Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $436.3 billion (2.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $2.9 billion (less than 0.1 percent). Real DPI decreased 2.8 percent in May and Real PCE decreased 0.4 percent; goods decreased 2.0 percent and services increased 0.4 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent.
US: UoM Consumer Sentiment Index improves to 85.5 (final) in June from 82.9 (USA)
The Consumer Sentiment Index in the US improved modestly to 85.5 (final) in June from 82.9 in May, the University of Michigan’s latest Surveys of Consumers showed on Friday. This reading came in weaker than the previous estimate and market expectation of 86.4.
CB Consumer Confidence
- Manufacturing PMI
- CPI Flash Estimate y/y
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- GDP m/m
- Chicago PMI
- Pending Home Sales m/m
- Crude Oil Inventories
- German Final Manufacturing PMI
- BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
- OPEC-JMMC Meetings
- Unemployment Claims
- ISM Manufacturing PMI
- BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
- Spanish Unemployment Change
- ECB President Lagarde Speaks
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m
- Non-Farm Employment Change
- Unemployment Rate