PA Market Report: Overview (June 28 – July 02) & Upcoming Events July’21

Jun 28, 2021

Luis de Guindos: Euro area banks in the recovery (Euro Zone)

I am delighted to take part once again in the Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit and very pleased to be able to attend in person. Today, I will focus on the banking sector and on financial system stability which is a necessary condition for the recovery from the pandemic crisis. Banks have weathered the pandemic and the economic outlook is now brightening The euro area economy was struck in 2020 by the extraordinary and severe coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic shock, with economic activity contracting sharply in the first half of the year.

Jun 29, 2021

Reserve Bank committed to its kaitiaki role (New Zealand)

The Reserve Bank delivers this purpose through its mandate of operating monetary policy to maintain low and stable inflation and contribute to maximum sustainable employment, promoting a sound and efficient financial system, meeting the public’s cash needs, and overseeing effective payments systems.
“We approach our mandate in a holistic manner by looking at a broad range of challenges and opportunities that impact our effectiveness as kaitiaki. We see progressing initiatives such as Te Ōhanga Māori, Climate Risk, and South Pacific Remittances as key to our purpose and vision,” Mr Orr said.

Japan: The employment deterioration as a result of coronavirus requires special attention (Japan)


US Consumer Confidence Increased in June (USA)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved further in June, following gains in each of the previous four months. The Index now stands at 127.3 (1985=100), up from 120.0 (an upward revision) in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 148.7 to 157.7.

Jun 30, 2021

Euro area annual inflation down to 1.9% (Euro Zone)

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.9% in June 2021, down from 2.0% in May according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in June (12.5%, compared with 13.1% in May), followed by non-energy industrial goods (1.2%, compared with 0.7% in May), services (0.7%, compared with 1.1% in May) and food, alcohol & tobacco (0.6%, compared with 0.5% in May).

US Private Sector Employment Increased by 692,000 Jobs in June (USA)

Private sector employment increased by 692,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP® National Employment Report TM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The total U.S.

Gross domestic product by industry, April 2021 (Canada)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.3% in April after 11 consecutive monthly increases. With the first decline in 12 months, total economic activity remained at about 1% below its level before the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020. Overall, 12 of 20 industrial sectors were down as gains in goods-producing industries (+0.5%) were more than offset by contractions in services-producing industries (-0.6%). Preliminary information indicates a decrease in real GDP of approximately 0.3% in May.

US Pending Home Sales Bounce Back 8.0% in May (USA)

Pending home sales rebounded strongly in May, reaching the highest reading ever for the month of May since 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four U.S. regions registered both month-over-month increases and year-over-year gains for pending home sales contract transactions for the month of May. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 8.0% to 114.7 in May. Year-over-year, signings increased 13.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

EIA Crude Inventory Data Shows Draw of 6.7 Million Barrels Last Week (USA)

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending June 25, 2021, which was 187,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.9% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 0.5 million barrels per day from the previous week.

Jul 1, 2021

Bailey: It’s a recovery, but not as we know it (UK)

Lord Mayor, there has been nothing usual about the last sixteen months. Even long-standing neighbors like the Bank and the Mansion House have had to resort to video conferences rather than popping round for a word. And one of the trickiest issues for all of us is dress code and etiquette – is this a tie-on or off video, who knows? I can admit that I don’t seem to be a very good predictor of dress code. But you did throw me not long ago Lord Mayor when we had a video call about an hour before we were both speaking at an event, and I can reveal that you were dressed in a Mansion House bomber jacket.

Unemployment insurance weekly claims (USA)

In the week ending June 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, a decrease of 51,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020, when it was 256,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 4,000 from 411,000 to 415,000. The 4-week moving average was 392,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020, when it was 225,500.

US Manufacturing PMI at 60.6%; June 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (USA)

“The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 60.6 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the May reading of 61.2 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 13th month in a row after the contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 66 percent, decreasing 1 percentage point from the May reading of 67 percent.

Jul 2, 2021

Unemployment fell by 166,911 people in June (USA)

Unemployment registered in the offices of the State Public Employment Service (SEPE) fell by 166,911 people in June compared to the previous month, the largest drop in any month since there is a record. In relative terms, it represents a drop of -4.41%. In the last four months, registered unemployment has decreased by 394,450 people. The total number of unemployed persons registered in June is 3,614,339

The Employment Situation — June 2021 (USA)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 850,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and other services. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.

Upcoming Events

5 July

  • Retail Sales m/m
  • OPEC-JMMC Meetings
  • BOC Business Outlook Survey

Jul 6

  • RBA Rate Statement
  • Cash Rate
  • RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • ISM Services PMI

Jul 7

  • EU Economic Forecasts
  • Ivey PMI
  • JOLTS Job Openings

Jul 8

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • Unemployment Claims
  • Crude Oil Inventories
  • G20 Meetings

Jul 9

  • ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • Employment Change
  • Unemployment Rate
  • G20 Meetings
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