PA Market Report: Overview (May 24 – May 28) & Upcoming Events June’21

May 24:

Fed’s Brainard: In Middle Of Unprecedented Rebound In US Economy (USA)

Fed’s Brainard: Been Expecting Some Higher Inflation Readings In The Near Term Because Of Base Effects

BoC’s Macklem: Tapering is right move for economy: DJ (Canada)

Bank of Canada Gov. Says Tapering Is Right Move for Economy

Comfortable with pulling back on the extraordinary stimulus extended during the pandemic because of the domestic economy’s resilience

May 25:

International Merchandise Trade, Preliminary, (Australia)

Key statistics • Exports of goods in April 2021 increased $13m (0%) to $35,952m • Imports of goods in April 2021 declined $1,896m (-7%) to $25,811m • For April 2021 there is a goods trade surplus of $10,141m (original, current price, merchandise trade basis) tables Exports key movements Exports of goods in April 2021 increased from the revised March 2021 estimate by $13m (0%) to $35,952m.

Japan: to begin a 3-day quarantine rule for travellers from the UK; imposes stricter entry rules on 3 additional countries (Japan)

Japan is to begin a 3-day quarantine rule for travellers from the UK and also imposes stricter entry rules on 3 additional countries

Ifo Economist: Expectations In Tourism And Hospitality Exploded In May, Hopes For Good Summer (Germany)

German Ifo Economist: Expectations In Tourism And Hospitality Exploded In May, Hopes For Good Summer

May 26:

Monetary Support Continued (New Zealand)

The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to maintain the current stimulatory level of monetary settings in order to meet its consumer price inflation and employment objectives. The Committee will keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 0.25 percent, and the Large Scale Asset Purchase and Funding for Lending programmes unchanged.

Monetary Policy Statement May 2021 (New Zealand)

The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) monetary policy strategy is its overarching plan for how it will formulate monetary policy under different circumstances to achieve its objectives.1 It outlines a consistent approach to how the MPC intends to achieve its objectives across time, accounting for trade-offs and uncertainty.

WTI Rebounds After Inventory Draws Across Crude & Products (USA)

WTI slipped back below $66 this morning as investors weighed signs of an improving demand outlook in some regions against the prospect of more crude supply flowing from Iran. “The potential for a return of Iranian oil supply into the market has been keeping oil prices from gaining further,” said ING analyst Warren Patterson.

May 27 :

BOE’s Vlieghe: should transition out of furlough happen smoothly, rate rise would be appropriate


Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2021 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st Quarter 2021 (Preliminary Estimate) (USA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP increased 4.3 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 6.4 percent.

Biden capital-gain tax hike plan to curb ability to avoid it (USA)

New: Biden’s bud­get as­sumes that his pro­posed cap­i­tal-gains tax rate in­crease took ef­fect in late April, mean­ing that it would al­ready be too late for high-in­come in­vestors to re­al­ize gains at the lower tax rates if Con­gress agrees

Japan govt. seeks to extend the virus emergency in Tokyo and other areas (Japan)


May 28:

Personal Income and Outlays, April 2021 (USA)

Personal income decreased $3.21 trillion (13.1 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $3.22 trillion (14.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $80.3 billion (0.5 percent). Real DPI decreased 15.1 percent in April and Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent;

US: UoM Consumer Sentiment Index declines to 82.9 (final) in May as expected (USA)

Consumer confidence in the US weakened modestly in May. US Dollar Index stays in the positive territory above 90.00. The Consumer Sentiment Index in the US declined to 82.9 (final) in May from 88.3 in April, the University of Michigan’s latest Surveys of Consumers showed on Friday. This reading came in slightly higher than the flash estimate of 82.8 and matched the market expectation.

Upcoming News events

May 31

Manufacturing PMI

Jun 1

  • RBA Rate Statement
  • Cash Rate
  • German Final Manufacturing PMI
  • OPEC-JMMC Meetings
  • GDP m/m
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

Jun 2

  • FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
  • GDP q/q
  • RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks

Jun 3

  • Retail Sales m/m
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • Unemployment Claims
  • ISM Services PMI
  • Crude Oil Inventories
  • BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

Jun 4

  • SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
  • RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
  • ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • Employment Change
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • Non-Farm Employment Change
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Ivey PMI
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